Annotation

This article analyzes the impact of customs tariff regulations on the competitiveness of export-oriented Russian industries from 2016 to the first half of 2026. It shows that the raw materials bias in exports persists but is gradually weakening: while mineral products accounted for approximately 61% of export value in 2024, their share fell to 53.9% in 2025, amid significant growth in non-resource products such as metals, chemicals, and machinery. Non-resource, non-energy exports, which set a record in 2021, declined in 2023–2024 and recovered in 2025, confirming the indicator's sensitivity not only to tariffs but also to sanctions, logistics, and global price conditions. The role of tariff escalation and flexible export duties — the grain damper, in effect since June 2021 and at zero for most positions in the summer of 2026 due to low world prices — is examined, together with the temporary zeroing of import duties on critical imports under the package of 2022 EEC Council decisions. Directions for further fine-tuning tariff policy in favor of highly processed products are identified.