Annotation

The article conducts a study in order to make a realistic and optimistic forecast of the development of the institution of forced labor, taking into account the adoption of Federal Law No. 218-FZ dated July 23, 2025. In this regard, the article analyzes the existing practice of assigning correctional labor to convicts, including those who do not have a job. Based on the data obtained, the further development of the practice of imposing this type of punishment for a period of up to 2030 is projected, as well as the proportion of individuals convicted of correctional labor, which allows us to assess the increase in the number of court sentences imposing forced labor following the adoption of Federal Law No. 218-FZ dated July 23, 2025. Moreover, an analysis is being conducted of the number of convicts for crimes whose составов will be supplemented with the punishment of forced labor as a result of the adoption of this federal law, which also confirms the conclusion about an increase in forced labor in both the real and optimistic scenarios.